$SPCX

Three weeks ago xAI looked like $SPCX SpaceX's biggest liability: $2.5B operating loss in Q1, $7.7B in AI capex, Grok losing ground to Claude and Gemini. Starlink was printing money and xAI was consuming it. Then SpaceX disclosed $75B in compute contracts: Anthropic at $1.25B/month and Google at $920M/month, and the narrative flipped completely ahead of the IPO. Google's deal has drawn some scrutiny. Anthropic locked 220k GPUs for $1.25B/month. Google is paying $920M for half that count: roughly 50% more expensive per chip. = We think the real explanation has a few layers: 1) GPU generation. These appear to be Blackwell-era chips, not H100s. B200s on CoreWeave run $8-11/hr vs $6/hr for H100s. The gap shrinks considerably once you adjust for that. 2) Google owns ~5% of SpaceX. Any above