← @matthew_sigel

$NVDA

BULLISH2026-05-20
Price around the call
2026-05-20
By horizonMaturing · ~4 trading days to go
1d
-2.3%
5d
-5.7%
21d
Original post
matthew sigel, recovering CFA · 2026-05-20

With $NVDA's 25x dividend hike, its payout ratio goes from 0.8% of earnings → ~20% (on FY26 net income). About ~10% on Q1's annualized run rate. The new dollar obligation of ~$24B/yr is roughly equal to everything they've announced in public equity investments over the last 12 months (CoreWeave, Marvell, Lumentum, Coherent, Corning, IREN, Intel…). And then there's the $80B buyback authorization on top. $48B in FCF last quarter -- pre-dividend. The new $24B annual dividend gets covered in under two quarters of free cash flow. They can clearly afford all of it. But curious what Jensen says about the pace of ecosystem investing going forward. Those bets have been core to the flywheel, and now they're competing with a much larger return-of-capital program.

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