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← @unclestocknotes

$MU

BEARISH2026-10-21
Price around the call
↓ 2026-10-21
By horizonMaturing · ~19 trading days to go
1d
✗ +3.0%
5d
…
21d
…
Original post
Unclestocknotes · 2026-10-21

TrendForce預估Q4 DRAM合約價季增約20%,低於Q2的80%、Q3的40%。高基期、終端購買力轉弱,加上長約價格上限,讓漲幅收斂。但價格仍在上升,漲得慢不能直接當成報價下跌。 據報輝達可能將Rubin Ultra從12層改為8層堆疊。若其他配置不變,每顆GPU的HBM容量約減三分之一,相同DRAM晶粒可供應約多50%的GPU。這有助緩解供應瓶頸,但每顆GPU的HBM收入,仍取決於容量與每Gb售價,不能只看堆疊層數。 $MU、SK海力士與三星仍有報價上升支撐,長約則用部分漲價空間換取需求能見度。Hanmi的接合設備需求也值得追蹤,但8層堆疊不代表設備訂單必然增加。韓股反彈,三星與SK海力士分別漲5.67%、5.81%。

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