Here is the reason $CRWV is unlikely to default anytime soon: Hyperscaler capex keeps going. Morgan Stanley just revised capex estimates again and it now expects hyperscaler capex to grow 30% from this year to 2028. Substantial portion of the hyperscaler capex flows through neoclouds, and those hyperscaler contracts allow neoclouds to borrow at attractive rates. So, as long as hyperscaler capex flows, I don’t think neocloud defaults are imminent. If hyperscalers start cutting back on capex before neoclouds are fcf positive, then we’ll have a problem.
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