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← @_wmoon

$NFLX

BULLISH2026-09-18
Price around the call
↑ 2026-09-18
By horizon✗ miss-5.8%
1d
✗ -1.6%
5d
✗ -4.6%
21d
✗ -5.8%
Original post
问月wmoon | StableStock🐳 · 2026-09-18

最近开始看 $NFLX,跌到这里开始有点意思了 今天富国银行把 NFLX 从「持有」直接下调到「减持」,目标价从 $80 砍到 $57。核心理由是观看时长持续下降:上半年每用户日均观看约 1.6 小时,调整后比 2023 年低约 8%,他们甚至预计下半年 Top 100 原创内容观看时长同比下降 21% 这个情况属实 > YouTube、TikTok 确实在抢 Netflix 的时间 但我认为市场可能忽略了一点 >> 看得少,不等于赚得少 不能直接把「观看时长下降」和「赚钱能力下降」划等号 目前的数据其实还不错:今年广告收入预计约 $30 亿,接近翻倍;全年 FCF 指引约 $125 亿。Q2 单季又回购了 $47 亿股票,目前还有 $271 亿回购额度 现在还明显在主动扩展直播体育、WWE、广告这些业务。直播贡献的观看时长并不高,但拉新和广告价值很高——过去五年 Netflix 新用户注册最高的 10 天里,有 6 天来自直播事件 只要观看时长下降没有带来明显的用户流失,同时广告、ARPU、利润率和自由现金流继续增长,那基本面其实没有坏 更长期看,我希望 NFLX 手里还有一张没有完全打出来的牌:AI > 传统精品内容负责订阅和品牌,体育/直播负责拉新和高价值广告,AI 内容负责低成本补充 engagement 如果 NFLX 能沿着这条路走下去,那现在的恐慌,可能反而给了一个不错的价格

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