I think Greenfire Resources $GFR is a really interesting idea. Greenfire is a $2B oil sands producer controlled by Adam Waterous of WEF, fresh off a $1.3B acquisition that doubles the size of the business from a production standpoint, trading around 4x my 2030 sustaining free cash flow, using $70 oil. GFR owns three SAGD projects an hour south of Fort McMurray. These are manufacturing operations, not drilling treadmills. Steam goes down, oil comes up, water gets recycled, and the cycle repeats for decades. In July they bought Connacher (Great Divide) for $1.3B, nearly 20k bbl/d directly adjacent to their other assets, and a company GFR’s CEO managed earlier in his career. They paid 4.8x EBITDA, less than 7x sustaining free cash flow, and roughly $65k per flowing barrel.
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