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← @tengyanai

$AAOI

BEARISH2026-09-03
Price around the call
↓ 2026-09-03
By horizon✗ miss+21.9%
1d
✗ +6.3%
5d
✓ -8.0%
21d
✗ +21.9%
Original post
Teng Yan · 2026-09-03

Our AI infrastructure map moved in five places today. here’s what changed, and why it matters for investors: #1: The packaging center of gravity may be shifting. Morgan Stanley estimates Nvidia’s share of TSMC CoWoS allocation falls from 53.4% to 45.6% in 2027, while AMD nearly doubles to 19.8%. Google also reportedly booked Intel packaging capacity for 3M+ TPUs rather than waiting in the TSMC queue. Advanced packaging is becoming a more contested, multi-supplier market. #2: NAND crossed into critical. Samsung starts mass production from its new storage line in Q4, while expected price increases on the tape are now 35 to 40%. Storage has been the quiet part of this AI cycle. That may be changing quickly. #3: SK hynix has begun HBM4 mass shipments to Nvidia for its next platform.

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