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← @oguzerkan

$MSFT

BEARISH2026-08-15
Price around the call
↓ 2026-08-15
By horizonMaturing · ~4 trading days to go
1d
✗ +0.9%
5d
✗ +2.8%
21d
…
Original post
Oguz Erkan · 2026-08-15

All these superinvestors selling $MSFT and buying $GOOG show they are buying the software disruption thesis. But it's not the case for $MSFT software. $MSFT software has maintained its dominance since the 1980s not because it was hard to replicate, but because it’s become the default medium of exchange for knowledge work. This is not going to change just because it got even easier to build software; it has been sufficiently easy to replicate Microsoft Office for a long time. This has never been the moat. To the contrary, if you have a dominant software, you can leverage it to charge extra for AI features. This is exactly what $MSFT has been doing with Copilot. On top of that, you are getting the second-largest cloud business. But search will inevitably be disrupted, and even though $G

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