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← @pascualinvest

$YPF

BEARISH2026-08-10
Price around the call
↓ 2026-08-10
By horizon✗ miss+15.7%
1d
✓ -0.8%
5d
✗ +3.5%
21d
✗ +15.7%
Original post
Facundo Pascual · 2026-08-10

$YPF reportó un trimestre histórico. EBITDA ajustado récord de US$2.804M, +76% secuencial y +149% interanual, con margen de 43%, el más alto en 20 años. Apalancamiento neto en 1,09x, el más bajo en 11 años. Antes de festejar a lo loco, vamos a separar cuánto es precio y cuánto es estructura. El precio realizado de crudo saltó de US$68,4 a US$91,1 el barril, +33% secuencial. Ese salto de precio internacional explica una porción grande del salto de EBITDA por sí solo. Pero hay mejoras genuinamente estructurales también: el costo de extracción total cayó 31% interanual a US$8,4 por barril equivalente, y en el hub de shale está en apenas US$4,0. Eso sí es escala real en Vaca Muerta, no viento de cola de precio. Incluso el número ajustado que reporta la propia empresa tiene ítems puntuales a

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