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← @godotsancho

$MU

BEARISH2026-08-09
Price around the call
↓ 2026-08-09
By horizon✗ miss+20.7%
1d
✗ +1.2%
5d
✗ +17.6%
21d
✗ +20.7%
Original post
戈多Godot · 2026-08-09

$MU 短线偏空,暗池出现明显派发,前几天暗池交易大量集中在 890–897,最新数据明显下移。 871–875 DP 占比 72%–77%,对应之前价格派发。 期权净权利金明显转负,MU 开盘直接站在 Call Wall 900 上方,随后迅速失败。900 已被市场验证为供给区。 早盘伴随股价下杀,指标恶化,但随后伴随修复,价格回升,期权压力在尾盘改善。 不过,OI 最醒目的新增仓位,是 14号到期的 Put 大量增加,从5897 到 31742,数字非常大。 Skew 8月21日 Risk Reversal 在中间 Delta 附近还比较平。 但越往远端尾部,Put 相对 Call 越来越贵,低 Delta 区域已经升到大约 +0.04。 翻译成人话,市场在21日前还愿意交易反弹,但真正到了后面 ,资金已经重新开始为暴跌买保险。 900 以下不太建议建仓。 871–875 是现在最重要的暗池争夺区。 如果这里持续失守,同时短期 Put OI 继续增加,情况会进一步恶化。 这不是全面看空,但市场正在从押上涨切换到重新给下跌定价。

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