$AAOI expects ~$1.1B in 2026 revenue with growth limited by production capacity and supply chain constraints rather than demand which management says is running up to 40% higher. Thats especially interesting because management says it expects to remain “the largest manufacturer domestically of optical transceivers for AI” which could become even more valuable if restrictions on Chinese suppliers tighten. Right now lasers and memory for 100G switches are the bottlenecks and management says Q3 growth could otherwise be above 50%.
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