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$AAOI

BULLISH2026-08-06
Price around the call
↑ 2026-08-06
By horizon✗ miss-16.8%
1d
✗ -2.0%
5d
✓ +10.4%
21d
✗ -16.8%
Original post
CK Capital · 2026-08-06

$AAOI beat, and one line matters more than any number. Revenue $191.9M vs $190M expected, up 86%. Adjusted EPS $0.06 vs $0.01. Fifth straight record quarter and their first non-GAAP profit in over two years. Q3 guided to $255-290M against $278M expected. The midpoint is roughly 42% sequential growth in a single quarter. And the line that defines the thesis: demand will continue to outpace production capacity through mid-2027. They aren't constrained by orders. They're constrained by how fast they can build. That's the whole reason for the 400,000 sq ft Texas expansion and the ramp from ~100k modules a month toward 900k by end of 2027. The honest part: margins are compressing, 27.7% GAAP and guided to 29-30.5%, and EPS guidance came in light because ramping capacity costs money before

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