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← @tengyanai

$ALAB

BEARISH2026-08-04
Price around the call
↓ 2026-08-04
By horizon✓ hit-11.6%
1d
✗ +4.3%
5d
…
21d
✓ -11.6%
Original post
Teng Yan · 2026-08-04

Astera Labs’ Q2 tonight: Everyone knows the numbers: $355 to $365M revenue, ~73% gross margin. The question the market is underweighting: Has Scorpio already become Astera’s largest product? Management said Scorpio would overtake Aries sometime in 2026. Last quarter, Gen6 products were already more than one-third of revenue. If Scorpio is now the largest, or close to it, Astera is no longer primarily a retimer vendor. It’s becoming a rack-scale fabric company. That’s a much bigger story than whether revenue beats by a few million dollars. We’re also watching gross margin. ≥73% keeps the product mix story clean. If Scorpio’s share stalls around Q1 levels, the inflection probably isn’t here yet. That’s the line that changes how we think about $ALAB. Not the headline revenue number.

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