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← @_wmoon

$INTC

BEARISH2026-08-03
Price around the call
↓ 2026-08-03
By horizon✓ hit-9.9%
1d
…
5d
✓ -3.0%
21d
✓ -9.9%
Original post
问月wmoon | StableStock🐳 · 2026-08-03

>> 联发科电话会,悄悄印证了英特尔封装 $INTC 这两年一直想证明:我的先进封装,外面的大客户真的会用 之前都是旁人在说——券商调研说有需求,做载板的厂商说客户在转过来。听着都像传闻 > 客户亲承,含金量高 在联发科最新的财报电话会上,摩根士丹利分析师直接问 CFO:第二代项目还需不需要台积电的 CoWoS 兜底,还是 EMIB-T 已经跑得够好了? CFO 的回答值得玩味。他没有否认 EMIB-T,只说第二代项目进展顺利、有信心 2028 年按时量产,让公司未来两年会很忙。他全程没主动说"英特尔"、也没说"EMIB-T"这个词——但顺着分析师的问题往下答,没有纠正、没有回避。这是电话会上典型的默认确认 是实际用封装的芯片设计客户,自己在电话会上确认了项目进度。从"英特尔自己说"到"客户自己说",分量完全不同 > 还只是封装,不是造芯片 联发科作为 fabless 的生态位如下: 上游设计(联发科)→ 制造/流片(台积电)→ 封装(封装厂)→ 下游终端(手机厂、AI 客户) 联发科交给英特尔的是封装,不是制造。它的芯片 die 大概率还是台积电流片,只把 EMIB-T 这道封装环节交给英特尔 但这也解释了英特尔的外部突破为什么先从封装开始——封装不碰核心设计 IP,客户的信任门槛低得多,妙手 > 别急着乐观,仍然没有拿下长期饭碗 但CFO 只确认了第二代,对第三代明确说"还没法评论",甚至提到可能转回台积电 CoWoS 做更大封装。载板厂说客户会"黏三代",那是供应链的乐观预期;客户本人的口径,只到第二代 说到底,客户现在转向 EMIB-T,一半是因为它比 CoWoS 省 40-50% 成本,另一半是因为台积电 CoWoS 售罄到 2027、大家需要第二来源 > 已经能看到一条越来越清晰的线 之前的证据链是这样的:富邦调研说有需求,欣兴说客户在从

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