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← @hibtc37

$SKHY

BEARISH2026-07-29
Price around the call
↓ 2026-07-29
By horizon✗ miss+4.4%
1d
✓ -4.3%
5d
✓ -7.3%
21d
✗ +4.4%
Original post
37度 · 2026-07-29

$SKHY 海力士交了一份可以说很"差"的财报: 1、营收79.3万亿韩元,环比增长 51%,同比增长256.8%;分析师预期83.85万亿韩元 2、营业利润60.54万亿韩元,环比增长61%,同比增长557.2% 3、毛利率83% 财报的影响: 1、韩海力士只跌到983就反弹,利空不深跌,那么就是要逼空一波了,做空的要小心,做空的赔率和胜率都低了,我合约挂了1010的多单,止损980,没有成交 2、高端存储扩产能速度非常快,下半年就放量,中低端不用说了,中长期绝对利空SNDK为代表的工业标准件存储 3、毛利率83%,大概率是到顶了,整个存储行业都在扩大资本支出和扩产能 4、进一步确认了存储是周期股,是周期股就不要格局,快进快出,当做合约玩就行,做好止损,找到盈亏比高的地方,撸一波走人,但更稳的长期策略是做空(短期我在做反弹) 5、这份财报有进一步提升“三星海力士价格已经是顶部了”的概率 6、后面的财报,很难比这个好,当然这个好是预期的好,不是实际的好坏,是和价格匹配的程度 7、除了HBM,预计其他产品线都很快会被中国碾压,中国人的做事周期和效率,不能用老美那一套来衡量 未来操作方向:一个客观事实,神鱼老师的韩国散户杠杆数据显示,还是在历史的98%分位,依然非常高,后面只需要等韩国人继续拉杠杆到50%多,我们在高位继续空他,胜率非常高!韩国人的野性,我摸清楚了,海力士的波动很大,是很好的提款机,当然短期还是要多,吃一波反弹吧

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