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← @tengyanai

$SKHY

BEARISH2026-07-26
Price around the call
↓ 2026-07-26
By horizonMaturing · ~20 trading days to go
1d
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5d
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21d
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Original post
Teng Yan · 2026-07-26

SK hynix suffered its worst one-day fall after a bearish earnings preview by KIS rattled the market But if you read the note closely, it still forecasts a record operating margin of almost 75%. So memory demand isn't cracking. Our disagreement with KIS's bearish view on the $SKHY quarter is with 1 accounting assumption. Specifically, how much of the surge in DRAM contract prices actually flows into reported Q2 pricing, given annual HBM contracts and LTAs. The KIS bear case assumes blended DRAM realization of ~+29%. Tessara's house view assumes closer to +40%. In Q1, contract-price benchmarks rose 93% to 98%, while SK hynix reported blended DRAM pricing up in the mid-60s, roughly 2/3 pass-through. KIS's ₩60T revenue bear case requires the pass-through ratio to fall toward 1/2 in t

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