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$TSLA

BULLISH2026-07-23
Price around the call
↑ 2026-07-23
By horizonMaturing · ~19 trading days to go
1d
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5d
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21d
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Original post
Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 · 2026-07-23

What % of the 'Active FSD Subscriptions' are paying customers? What's the conversion rate on free trials? IMO this is the most important metric BY FAR for $TSLA for the next few quarters. 10 million active paying subscribers at $99 per month is $12 billion per year in incremental revenue at essentially pure profit. It's just a software upgrade. Tesla should have a fleet of 10 million cars capable of turning on FSD within the next 3-5 years. Perhaps sooner. A 50 P/E on that recurring earnings is a $600 billion market cap just on FSD Supervised, with a growing fleet every quarter into a massive transportation TAM. Doesn't include Energy, Bot, Unsupervised FSD, Robotaxi, Distributed Inference, Terafab, and synergies from the inevitable SpaceX merger (Drones, AI satellites, eVTOLs). Th

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