The biggest bear case on $MU is that CXMT will take market share. Microns main trade is now HBM which CXMT dosent make & also can’t sell to US hyperscalers due to export restrictions US hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta aren’t going to buy HBM from CXMT. HBM requires years of qualification, proven reliability, and trusted supply chains. Do you think they will trust their multi-billion-dollar AI clusters to unproven Chinese HBM? Highly unlikely. For now, CXMT is more likely to supply China’s domestic AI market than compete for Micron’s HBM customers.
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