X has a virus of people presenting their opinions and predictions as if they are fact Today's example: "speculative stocks have dumped and $SPY has barely budged. Imagine what happens to those stocks if SPY has a real bear market 😏" The real answer is, of course: NOBODY KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN You can say confidently that a dump in broad market will mean even further pain for speculation. But that's just a guess, presented with unearned confidence. We may just as well find that in the event of a broad market correction, the small speculative stocks that were first to get crushed, might be the first to recover. (if we get a major correction at all, that is) True alpha comes from understanding the limits of our reasoning ability. Once you notice the "people presenting their opinions an
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