Gavin Baker basically says semiconductors may not be as much cyclical as they used to be. It’s already less cyclical since the introduction of cloud computing, and AI will make it even less cyclical. Think this way: McKinsey estimates ~160 GW AI data center capacity bu 2030. Assuming $100 billion cost per 1 GW AI data center, we are looking at $1.6 trillion worth of accelerated computing that needs to be replaced every 4-6 years. This is assuming no further growth. Assuming a 20% historical growth rate of the computer industry holds, we can easily say that even if the boom cycle ends in 2030, the baseline for stabilised annual capex will still be no less than $650 billion. And it'll keep growing from that level. How can you not be bullish on $NVDA?
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