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$SPY

BEARISH2026-07-02
Price around the call
↓ 2026-07-02
By horizonMaturing · ~3 trading days to go
1d
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5d
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21d
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Original post
AskLivermore · 2026-07-02

Our 2026 stock market is following the exact same pattern as 1968, 1978, and 2007. If this continues, $SPY will have a weak year finishing at +5.8% (average is ~10%+). • July - choppy • August - choppy • September - grind higher • October - peak • November - sell-off • December - choppy 1. 1968 was political chaos and inflation brewing - MLK assassinated (April) - RFK assassinated (June) - Vietnam War escalating, race riots across dozens of cities - Market bottomed in March, then rallied hard through the summer as the chaos was "priced in" - Nixon vs. Humphrey election rally - markets loved Nixon's pro-business stance, rallied into November - Year-end selloff was due to Bretton Woods starting to crack, Fed raising rates from 4% to 9%, inflation becoming visible; the beginning of a mult

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