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← @godotsancho

$MU

BULLISH2026-06-23
Price around the call
↑ 2026-06-23
By horizon✗ miss-12.9%
1d
✓ +15.6%
5d
✗ -3.3%
21d
✗ -12.9%
Original post
戈多Godot · 2026-06-23

距财报还有两个交易日,1200 成 $MU 关键位置🧐 Put Wall 上移到 1,200 形成支撑、机构在 1,300-1,500 行权价大规模新开 LEAP Call 看多、put 对冲在 8/21 到期 980 价格上累计接近 9400万美元。 市场押注上行,但买了保险,1200 是关键防守线。 Gamma 翻转位置从上周五 1049 移到 1126.89,目前是上涨加速位置 1255,之前的 Call Wall 1200,在现货价格突破后,成了 Put Wall 重要支撑位,也就是机构认为该价格现在不该跌破。 资金面仍然是大量看涨流入,Net Premium +2.14亿美元,其中 Call 流入是 Put 的 3.6倍。 综合起来几个结论, 1)MU 已经从 17日收盘 1043 涨到现在盘前差不多 1230 左右,18% 的涨幅,是否已经预先对财报乐观预期进行了定价,这里要琢磨一下。 期权数据没有给答案,但是给了赔率。Call vs Put 比例 3.6:1、25Δ skew 100 分位、大量 LEAP call 新建、Put Wall 1200 形成支撑,等于在说上行概率更高,下跌有支撑。 2)做市场 Gamma 结构看,1200 非常非常重要,反复强调,财报后只要不跌破 1200,做市商 short put 仓位会带来回补买盘。 如果跌破,下行加速区域就打开了,原本 1255 加速位置、1300 和 1500 Leap call 集中区域都会变成阻力位。 3)MU 财报之后,股价剧烈波动已成为市场共识,如果已经吃到前面涨幅,其实在财报前建议先观望。 数据超预期,股价仍可能下跌,因为目前市场乐观情绪,已经 price in 这部分超出的预期。 除非 MU 能在电话会透露一些出人意料的合作,或者 HBM4E 或者在其他存储利润池的进

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