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← @bitfool1

$MU

BULLISH2026-05-30
Price around the call
↑ 2026-05-30
By horizon✓ hit+1.1%
1d
✓ +2.6%
5d
✗ -5.8%
21d
✓ +1.1%
Original post
比特傻 · 2026-05-30

《币圈选手的水土不服》 这几个月,大批币圈好手进入美股市场。 这就像跳棋选手学习下象棋,一开始难免有很多不适应的地方。 币圈非常重视龙头。 傻哥曾言,龙一是龙二的十倍,依旧是龙一便宜。 美股的情况则复杂的多。 存储龙一hynix,涨不过龙四sndk。 在供应链上收到同等capex冲击的小标的如sive,涨的都比lite多。 在市值的推动上,币圈主要是情绪 而美股主线推动、eps推动,比如$Mu 也有叙事推动如Nok 而Eps推动的过程,需要看未来三年的Eps 其实也包含大量的情绪 可以算作基本面和情绪相互交织的作用。 相同点, 也是炒新不炒旧,老登会遭人嫌弃的 pdd EV/FCF多低啊 人家几年就可以把企业赚出来 但0capex昏昏欲睡 老登中概没人买 类似Snow呀、Dell呀 只要财报上蹭到了AI立马拉的蹭蹭涨 还有 业务精纯干净的,爆发力比大杂烩强; 比如lite就比cohr精纯 同样是光模块,cohr的营收要大得多 但因为掺杂了之前的传统工业业务 导致涨的不如lite猛 估值基准不如lite高。 币圈的最大收益,来自一个新叙事的确立 新叙事被某个核心标的占领 美股因为股票基本都是老登一路走来 讲究个re-rate now作为老登软件股,一下子重新叙事为AI数据基础设施 立马跳涨 存储从老轱辘棒子周期可怜股 rerate成打破周期的AI基建瓶颈股 pe倍数蹭蹭蹭往上走 就说这么多吧 碎碎念 作为终身学习者,不急 好戏在后头

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