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← @bboczeng

$LITE

BULLISH2026-05-18
Price around the call
↑ 2026-05-18
By horizon✗ miss-6.5%
1d
✗ -3.5%
5d
✗ -0.9%
21d
✗ -6.5%
Original post
Darren北美投资 · 2026-05-18

$LITE 今天跌了将近10%,很多人在问我怎么看。 跌的原因很简单:一个叫Leopold Aschenbrenner的AI投资人,在Q1 2026的13F里全清了Lumentum的仓位。他是前OpenAI研究员,23岁创立Situational Awareness基金,2.25亿美元起步,一年做到55亿美元。光LITE一个股,他拿着的时候涨了超过1300%。 他之所以清仓,不是因为光学赛道逻辑破了。这是一个他已经赚了十倍以上的基金在做资本再分配——去找下一个还没被发现的瓶颈,而不是继续押注一个市场已经充分定价的标的。他的清仓离场和这家公司的投资逻辑没有任何关系。 我为什么反而加仓? LITE的基本面一条没变:英伟达20亿美元战略投资加多年采购承诺依然有效;SpectrumX和QuantumX交换机的激光供应商地位,LITE是唯一选择;Co-Packaged Optics是AI集群规模化绕不开的物理瓶颈。 Aschenbrenner卖出是因为他先进场、先获利、要找新标的。他的退出不代表赛道结束,只代表他这一轮的钱够赚了。 聪明钱离场之后,散户恐慌抛售,往往是真正的买点。同时Crdo的下跌更加是受板块情绪影响,Leopold根本就没有持有过这只股票。我今天也继续加仓。 大家怎么看光互联这条赛道?

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