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← @_wmoon

$NVDA

BULLISH2026-05-03
Price around the call
↑ 2026-05-03
By horizon✓ hit+3.2%
1d
✗ -1.8%
5d
✓ +7.6%
21d
✓ +3.2%
Original post
问月wmoon | StableStock🐳 · 2026-05-03

半导体-> 硬件/平台-> 软件 AI 周期是否沿着过去的路径在演进? 要回答这个问题不妨往回拉进度条 在金融危机复苏后,市场走过这样的路 > 10-12年 $QCOM $ARM 作为卖铲人获得回报 > 11-13年 三星 $AAPL 发力销售硬件 > 15年: $GOOG $AMZN 软件成为市场领导者 在AI周期里,前两阶段开始显现 > 算力层: $NVDA 领跑 > 基础设施层: $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT 这些云业务的庞然大物 Q4 待确认收入同比几乎翻倍,这种增速本不该出现在已经完全规模化的成熟业务上 > 软件层:上一个周期的大赢家都来自应用层 -- Uber Airbnb Ins Whatsapp 以及 SaaS,其实AI 周期的软件层也在以前所未有的速度扩张,只不过都发生在一级市场,二级投资者还看不到这一层的繁荣 上一次软件领跑市场,用了5年 这一次,Anthropic、OpenAI 们会用多久?

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