← @danieltniles

$TSM

BEARISH2026-04-22
Price around the call
2026-04-22
By horizonMaturing · ~0 trading days to go
1d
+4.4%
5d
+2.1%
21d
Original post
Dan Niles · 2026-04-22

$NOW lowering margin guidance will be an important test. Those that think AI disintermediating software is an over-done theme has helped push $IGV (software ETF) from -37% to a 52 wk low to +19% vs S&P +5% in the past 8 trading days. Will this mark a near-term top? Watching how the bigger names like $ORCL and $MSFT as well as the important security names like $CRWD and $PANW handle the ServicNow results will be an important tell. I used to have a yellow sticky taped to my monitor that said “Do not fight the hard battles.” Even investors that were right in 1999 about $AMZN being the ultimate winner in e-commerce with revenues nearly doubling from $1.6B to $3.1B by 2001 had to suffer through the 95% stock decline from its peak in late 1999 to trough in 2001. It is a solid point that tech v

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