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← @_wmoon

$MSFT

BULLISH2026-03-31
Price around the call
↑ 2026-03-31
By horizon✓ hit+2.2%
1d
✓ +1.0%
5d
✗ -2.8%
21d
✓ +2.2%
Original post
问月wmoon | StableStock🐳 · 2026-03-31

>> 下跌33%的 $MSFT 值得买吗 要回答这个问题,先要知道为什么水深火热 25 年微软风光一时无两 有Azure 押注了OpenAI 有Copilot 跑赢谷歌亚马逊 > 为什么 26 年情况急转直下 谷歌有搜索广告护城河 亚麻有电商平台 微软发布的流行AI 产品数量:0 它的核心是按人头收费的Office套件 一旦AI Agent 真的能替代知识工作者 这个模式最脆弱 更难看的是 在微软自己的地盘上 Anthropic 的 Excel 和 PPT 插件 > 比自家的阿斗 Copilot 更受欢迎 除此之外云服务竞争激烈 > 单季 CapEx 暴涨66%到375亿美元 合同积压里 45% 绑在还在亏损的 OpenAI 身上 Azure增速从 40% 降到 39% 看起来只差1% 但今时今日市场不会放过你 四面楚歌 好了 读到这里你捶胸顿足,拍桌大喊“错杀!“ 要打开StableStock准备抄底了 >> 先记下这两个我在等的反转催化剂也来得及 > E7 套件 5月1日正式上线 售价 99 美元每用户每月 这个适应AI时代的套餐将 Copilot 直接捆进企业授权 这是微软2015年以来第一个新的顶级企业授权 市场接不接受 决定接下来的估值叙事 > 如果管理层开始压缩CapEx 自由现金流回来了 故事同样也会不一样 记住,下跌是我们最应该兴奋的时候 继续盯紧那些水深火热的标的

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