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← @cybercatx

$LMND

BULLISH2026-02-20
Price around the call
↑ 2026-02-20
By horizon✓ hit+33.6%
1d
✓ +2.7%
5d
✓ +4.9%
21d
✓ +33.6%
Original post
CyberCat · 2026-02-20

个人观点:单看运营费率其实掩盖了 $LMND 的效率,Q4为例运营费率的35%都是成长性开支(获客 CAC),获客是一次性的提前开支,收获是在顾客之后的生命周期 (LTV / CAC 约为 3.6),因此成长性开支的增加会让短期账面上看起来效率不高。 但是刨开成长性开支lemonade的日常开销相较保费增速极为缓慢 (图中展示3年保费翻倍,刨开成长性开支的营运成本仅仅增长16%),这是ai自动化带来的优势。 当lemonade用户体量持续变大,服务用户的成本增速很慢,运营费率会持续走低,产生经营杠杆。我个人相信长期以来 $LMND 的运营费率会是远超传统巨头的存在。当下阶段lemonade的策略就是加速增长获取优质客户,收获的季节在后面。换一个角度看lemonade在保持高速增长的同时还能取得持续走低的赔付率佐证了他们定价模型是work的,当然向talk君你说的我们可以持续看一个周期。

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