The VIX spiked 34% today to 22, which means the market is now pricing roughly 1.4% daily swings in $SPY. Here is the simple math to translate the fear index yourself, just divide the VIX by 16. Why 16? The VIX is expected volatility over the next 30 days, quoted as an annual number. There are 252 trading days in a year, and the square root of 252 is about 16. Divide by that and you get the expected daily move. The cheat sheet: VIX at 16, roughly 1% daily moves expected. VIX at 24, about 1.5% swings every day. VIX at 32, 2% days become the expectation, not the exception. VIX at 40, the market is braced for 2.5% daily chaos. One important detail, that number is one standard deviation, meaning the market expects to stay inside it about two days out of three. It is the typical day price
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