so $ASML's installed base revenue came in at €3.3B against a ~€2.9B guide. Q2 beat by ~€0.3B. Q3 by ~€0.4B. this is the line I said to watch.. system prices get locked in years ahead. ASML's CFO said in July that with order lead times this long, price changes can't show up right away. upgrades and parts are different. they're sold into fabs running today, on much shorter lead times. Samsung and SK Hynix already accepted +10% on parts from January. so the shortage hits this line first. a new fab takes years. an upgrade adds wafers per hour to a tool that's already running. that's what chipmakers are buying while they wait for new machines/2028.
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