Market Alert | Risk Shifts from “Heating Up” to “Macro Compression” Brent crude briefly topped $108 and settled near $107.60. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.83% to 4.95%, while the 2-year yield rose from 4.43% to 4.56%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq lost 0.7%, the Dow declined 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.0%. Most sectors outside energy finished lower, while the VIX climbed 8.4% to 17.84. What changed: This is no longer just a geopolitical risk premium. August PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, while goods prices increased 1.1%. The inflation data are beginning to confirm that the energy shock is feeding into production costs. INFERENCE: Yesterday’s move still looked like orderly de-risking. Today, oil prices, inflation, and both short- and lo
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