Bear Case: Valuations are at 90th percentile. Bull Case: Earnings growth is at 99th percentile. What’s driving it? Capex spending + Federal government + Consumer. Which of those variables will slow? Capex: Hyperscalars are forking over FCF for chips. Feds: Boosting defense spending 50%. No serious talk about curtailing entitlements. Consumer: Strong balance sheets. So, focus on earnings. The froth in semis is clearing out. Tomorrow, after $NVDA reports, the name may have a lower forward PE than the S&P itself. That’s not a bubble.
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