$MU earnings and guidance were stellar. The question is how much longer memory supply will stay tight. Some people think CXMT will flood the market with commodity DRAM, so prices will come down. I don't agree. What's more likely is that CXMT ramps capacity to the extent that it sells as much as it can while the broader market stays tight, letting the memory guys keep their pricing power. After all, CXMT also wants to make money, right? It doesn't make sense for CXMT to nuke its own market. SemiAnalysis' incremental DRAM wafer estimates validate this. CXMT will ramp aggressively, but not enough to end the shortage. So DRAM supply stays tight until HBM demand loosens. And that happens when hyperscaler capex stops going up. Critical indicator to really watch is hyperscaler capex revis
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